Dutch economic news

What is the current state of our economy? As an economic advisor, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) is closely monitoring this issue. Twice a year, we publish our forecasts for the Dutch economy: Economic Developments and Outlook. In the meantime, we use the DNB Business Cycle Indicator to keep our finger on the pulse of the economy. We also regularly publish studies, news and lectures on current economic issues.

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March forecasts: 6.7% inflation in 2022

In mid-March 2022, we made new predictions. Uncertainty is high because of the war in Ukraine. We expect the Dutch economy to grow by 3.5% this year and 1.5% next year. The growth in 2022 is due to a very strong economic recovery in late 2021 after the Corona (COVID-19) crisis. Inflation is expected to be 6.7% this year and 2.8% in 2023. If the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine are more severe and prolonged, this will lead to higher energy prices and unrest in financial markets. In this case, economic growth will decrease to 2.3% this year and 0.5% in 2023. In this scenario, inflation will increase to 9.5% and decrease to 3.4% in 2023.

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Economic developments and prospects

Every six months, we present our expectations of the Dutch economy in our Economic Developments and Outlook. In doing so, we deal not only with economic growth and basic expenditure categories such as consumption, investment and exports. We also discuss developments in areas such as inflation, the labor market, the housing market and public finances.

Read more about economic developments and outlook

Forecasting a rapid recovery of the Dutch economy after the COVID-19 crisis

Following a historic GDP contraction of 3.7% in 2020, the Dutch economy is expected to recover strongly and rapidly, starting in the second quarter of 2021. GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2021, by 3.7%. in 2022 and 1.9 percent in 2023, assuming that social distancing measures are gradually reduced and will no longer be necessary by 2022. pandemic, and the economy will recover much faster than after the 2008 financial crisis.

If support measures are eased after the third quarter of 2021, employment will initially decline slightly, but will rise significantly during 2022. At the same time, an improving economic outlook will prompt more people to look for work. As a result, unemployment is expected to rise from 3.6 percent in 2021 to 4.5 percent in 2022. As the economy improves further, unemployment should fall to 4.1 percent in 2023. Inflation is expected to increase from 1.1% in 2020 to 1.5%. in 2021 due to the increase in oil prices. Inflation should remain at 1.5 percent in 2022 and rise to 1.8 percent in 2023, consistent with increased labor market tightness.